Saturday, May 25, 2013

UEFA Champions League Final Preview


UEFA Champions League Final: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

How'd They Get Here:
Bayern Munich:
Round of 16 vs. Arsenal - Leg 1: Bayern Win 3-1, Leg 2: Arsenal Win 2-0, AGG: Draw 3-3 (Bayern Wins on Away Goals)
Quarterfinals vs. Juventus - Leg 1: Bayern Win 2-0, Leg 2: Bayern Win 2-0, AGG: Bayern Win 4-0
Semifinals vs. Barcelona - Leg 1: Bayern Win 4-0, Leg 2: Bayern Win 3-0, AGG: Bayern Win 7-0

Borussia Dortmund:
Round of 16 vs. Shakhtar Donetsk - Leg 1: Draw 2-2, Leg 2: Dortmund Win 3-0, AGG: Dortmund Win 5-2
Quarterfinals vs. Malaga - Leg 1: Draw 0-0, Leg 2: Dortmund Win 3-2, AGG: Dortmund Win 3-2
Semifinals vs. Real Madrid - Leg 1: Dortmund Win 4-1, Leg 2: Madrid Win 2-0, AGG: Dortmund Win 4-3

The Lineups:
Bayern Munich:
Goalkeeper: Manuel Neuer
Defense: Dante, Jerome Boateng, Philipp Lahm, David Alaba
Midfield: Franck Ribery, Javi Martinez, Arjen Robben, Thomas Muller, Bastian Schweinsteiger
Forward: Mario Mandzukic
Bench: Tom Starke, Daniel van Buyten, Xherdan Shaqiri, Luis Gustavo, Anatoliy Tymoschuk, Claudio Pizarro, Mario Gomez

Borussia Dortmund:
Goalkeeper: Roman Weidenfeller
Defense: Marcel Schmelzer, Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Lukasz Piszczek
Midfield: Ilkay Gundogan, Sven Bender, Kevin Grobkreutz, Marco Reus, Jakub Blaszczykowski
Forward: Robert Lewandowski
Bench: Mitchell Langerak, Felipe Santana, Sebastian Kehl, Moritz Leitner, Nuri Sahin, Oliver Kirch, Julian Schieber

The Game:

At the beginning of the semifinals, if you told me that the two teams in the final would be from the same country, I definitely would've thought it was Barcelona and Real Madrid. Those two Spanish teams were the favorites all season long and at the end of the semifinals it was the German squads that pulled off the upsets.

Both teams have won the Champions League Trophy before as Bayern Munich has won it four times, as most recently as 2001 and Borussia Dortmund winning the title their only time in 1997.


The key missing piece to this game is Borussia Dortmund midfielder, Mario Gotze. Gotze has been the key piece to the success of Dortmund all season with his superb play in the center of the midfield and he will be on the sideline for this game. Having Gotze on the field would've made for a huge story as he is moving to Bayern Munich over the summer.

Even with Gotze on the pitch, Bayern Munich were the better team all season, so without Dortmund's key player I just can't see Dortmund coming away victorious in this game. In the German Bundesliga this season Munich finished 25 points ahead of second-place Dortmund and only tasted defeat once to a German side all season long.

When I look at the starting lineups for today's game I am not surprised by anything. Each team is going with the lineups that have gotten them to this point in the season. When I compare the two's different parts of the lineups, I have the two teams coming out even:

Lineup Comparison:
Goalkeeper: Advantage Bayern Munich
Defense: Advantage Borussia Dortmund
Midfield: Advantage Bayern Munich
Forward: Advantage Borussia Dortmund

While I have the two teams coming out even with each having the advantage in two places, Bayern's advantages are much greater at goalkeeper and midfield while Dortmund doesn't have too big of an advantage at defense or the forward position.


The main difference between the two teams is the goalkeeper position. I have been saying all year that Manuel Neuer was the best goalkeeper in the world and I still believe it. While Weidenfeller isn't a slouch, I don't think he's in the same league as Neuer. Neuer will be the key in this game as he will have his hands full with Robert Lewandowski and Marco Reus. Both of those guys will likely get a goal in this game, but Neuer will likely save around 10 throughtout the 90 minutes.

I think Mario Mandzukic and Franck Ribery will do the some of the scoring early for Munich with Mario Gomez coming on in the second half for Mandzukic and scoring the game winner. Dortmund rely on two guys for most of the scoring, but Bayern has five or six guys in their lineup that could possibly do the damage today.

I'm expecting a close game for 90 minutes and wouldn't be shocked if this somehow went past the 90 minutes. I'm just hoping that this game doesn't come down to the crap shoot that is the penalty shootout.

My Prediction: Bayern Munich win 3-2
Man of the Match: Manuel Neuer
Goals: Bayern - Mandzukic, Ribery & Gomez / Dortmund - Lewandowski & Reus


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