I know this is slightly late as the NBA Playoffs are already four days in, but I thought I'd get this up now anyways. All of the picks made in this piece were done last Thursday and have not been changed.
My favorite time of the year is now upon us. In my opinion there is no better postseason than the NBA Playoffs. The NBA Playoffs are really the only postseason tournament that really shows which team was the best team of the year for the most part. When it's a one-and-done tournament like the NFL Playoffs or the NCAA Tournament I don't think you end up with the best team winning every year. I also think that baseball's playoffs usually don't show which team was the best all year, but rather which team got hot at the right point. The NBA Playoffs is two months of best-of-seven series' featuring the 15 best teams in the NBA along with the Milwaukee Bucks and in my opinion there is nothing better.
At the beginning of the year Darryl Wilson and I sat down and went through our preseason picks and midway through the year we made a revised edition that I posted here: NBA Midseason Projections. At the end of the year I finished slightly better than Darryl and managed to get all 16 teams in the playoffs from the mid-point with Darryl getting 14 right. When sitting down the other day we decided that we would come up with our first round projections. Rather than picking the entire playoffs all at once we will just get together before each new round begins.
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Eastern Conference:
#1 Miami Heat vs. #8 Milwaukee Bucks (Heat lead 2-0)
Jim: Heat in 4
Darryl: Heat in 5
In all honesty I don't think the Bucks should have been allowed to compete in this year's playoffs. Before the series even started I gave them no chance and expected them to be swept rather easily. So far they haven't done anything to show me or anyone else that they were worthy of being a part of the 16 team tournament. In my opinion I think the NBA should have just given the Heat a bye in the first round, because that's what these two games have basically been for Miami so far.
Brandon Jennings was dumb enough to come out and say that the Bucks would win the series in six games. It's good and all to think that, but when you're playing the team that has been the best all season long, you shouldn't be trying to make any crazy guarantees. If you are going to make a guarantee you are supposed to go out and win the game. People remember Joe Namath's guarantee because he went out and led the Jets to the Super Bowl. In a few years no one is going to remember this series unless LeBron or D-Wade manage to put on one of the greatest statistical performances of all time. By the end of the weekend the Heat should be out enjoying the Miami sun for a few days while the Bucks are unpacking their lockers.
#2 New York Knicks vs. #7 Boston Celtics (Knicks lead 2-0)
Jim: Knicks in 6
Darryl: Knicks in 7
As a Knicks fan I was so happy to get this series. New York fans hate Boston fans and vice versa so getting to see seven possible games between these two teams makes a lot of fans in the northeast very happy. Through two games in New York, the Knicks have come out early trying to get rid of one of their biggest rivals. Carmelo Anthony stated that season two was a must-win and he made sure that Tuesday night the Knicks came out and defeated the Celtics.
Ever since Rajon Rondo went down with injury, many fans and journalists talked about how the Celtics might be better without Rondo. The easy truth is that they are definitely not a better team. Without Rondo the Celtics have had to rely heavily on Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett and the last time I checked it isn't 2008 still. The Celtics needed Rondo this year if they were going to make one last attempt at competing for a championship, because after this season they will likely start all over.
The Knicks have been hampered by injuries all season as much as the Celtics, but Gotham's squad has made many key moves before and during the season to make them the biggest threats to the Miami Heat for the east title. While bringing in Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin have been great moves for the Knicks, it's the move that they didn't make that I think has bettered them the most. When New York chose not to match the Houston Rockets contract for Jeremy Lin I was skeptical at first if it was that great of a move, but during the season I came to the realization that it was definitely the right move by the front office.
With the series now headed to Boston, the Celtics will likely have to win both games if they are going to see this series go much further as I don't see them coming back to MSG and winning in game five. I originally predicted the Knicks to end this in six, but I'm starting to think it might be over even earlier than that.
#3 Indiana Pacers vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks (Pacers lead 1-0)
Jim: Pacers in 6
Darryl: Pacers in 5
The Pacers have been without their best player almost all season long and have still managed to get the third seed in the east and will likely be headed to the conference semifinals. With Danny Granger out now for the remainder of the playoffs after missing most of the season, I'm expecting both Roy Hibbert and Paul George to be able to lead them past the Hawks and put up a good fight with the Knicks in the conferene semis. If they had Granger I think they'd finish this series even earlier and would have a much better shot at moving on to the conference finals or even in the NBA Finals.
The Hawks have seemed to be that one team that just can't get over the hump. Over the years they have had Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford leading their squad and haven't been able to reach the conference finals. With Johnson now playing for Brooklyn the Hawks have now had to rely on Smith and Horford more and it seems as if the two of them are incapable of being the leading man on a team. After the season they will have to possibly work on a trade to bring in someone else because they just don't seem to be going in the right direction at this point.
This is definitely the least sexy of the series' being played in the east including the Heat-Bucks series that is already finished. Neither team will likely contend past this round and expect the Pacers to finish this series in five or six games. The only things to really look forward to in this series are the match-ups between George and Smith as well as Horford and Hibbert.
#4 Brooklyn Nets vs. #5 Chicago Bulls (Series tied 1-1)
Both: Bulls in 6
New York's new team is definitely on the rise and have had a pretty good team in the first season back in the big apple. With their new core of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez they have proven to be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference all season long. However, they are playing a team that just happens to look better than them, even without their best player.
The Chicago Bulls have managed to get the five seed in the East without former MVP Derrick Rose. Rose has been on the shelf for the entire season with some questioning whether or not he is capable of lacing them up now for the playoffs. The likelihood of Rose suiting up at all for these playoffs is very slim, so I'm not giving them a realistic shot at possibly getting past the Heat in the next round. Even without Rose I still think they are the better team as Tom Thibodeau is one of the best coaches in the NBA today.
The series is currently tied at one a piece and heading to Chicago for the next two games. The place that Michael Jordan built will definitely be rocking in the next two games as the Bulls have always managed to have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Expect the Bulls to take a 3-1 lead after four with the Nets winning at home in game five and the Bulls finishing it in Chicago in six.
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Western Conference:
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Houston Rockets (Thunder lead 1-0)
Jim: Thunder in 5
Darryl: Thunder in 4
James Harden went from being on the best team in the Western Conference to the eighth seed about a week before this year's NBA season started. Somehow the Thunder have managed to not skip a beat when losing one of their big three and managed to finish with the best record in the Western Conference.
Kevin Durant has been the MVP this year in the NBA. He has been so important to the success of the Thunder in Harden's absence. While I don't think the Thunder will be able to sweep the Rockets, I do expect them to get it done rather quickly. Durant's new "fire" has been huge for the Thunder and I really think his added attitude and confidence are the key to his success. If he continues to carry the monkey on his back of possibly being second and being out to prove that he should be first, this could end up being the Thunder's year to take home the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Watching Harden play against his former team might be exciting for some, but you shouldn't expect the Rockets to really compete with the Thunder this year. With Linsanity, Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik they are definitely a playoff team, but they still need at least one more piece if they are going to compete with some of the best in the West.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers (Spurs lead 1-0)
Jim: Spurs in 5
Darryl: Spurs in 4
You look at these two teams playing in the first round and you should get excited. Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant are suiting up against each other. Gregg Popovich and Phil Jackson are manning the sidelines. Then you actually look at the squads as they suit up and now you have Jodie Meeks on the floor for the Lakers with Mike Antoni (the D is silent because it doesn't exist) running the plays. Bryant's leg injury stole away the possibility of one last Kobe-Duncan match-up in the playoffs that could have possibly helped show which player will end their career with the more successful legacy.
While the Lakers are without Bryant, you can still look at their roster and see some of the biggest names in the NBA including Steve Nash, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and "The Artest Formerly Known As Ron." Those four will be going up against the big three of Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.
As much as you could say that the Lakers might actually show up and defeat the Spurs, there's just no way that this team will be able to do it with this coach. They are going to be outplayed and outcoached in this season and this might be ugly for Laker fans. In my opinion, Popovich is the greatest NBA coach I've ever seen as he has managed to take average players and fit them into his system to produce great results. This season is likely to be the last time you see the Spurs contending for a championship with Duncan, Ginobili and Parker as the three of them aren't getting any younger. It's time to enjoy the "Big Fundamental" while we all still can.
#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Golden State Warriors (Series tied 1-1)
Jim: Warriors in 7
Darryl: Warriors in 6
You would think that when all-star David Lee went down with an injury that will have him miss the rest of the playoffs that the Nuggets would likely win this series very easily. I was very nervous about my original pick when the injury happened, but in Tuesday's game we were all remembered that the Warriors still have Mr. Steph Curry.
When I look at the current crop of young NBA guards there aren't many I'd put on the same level as Curry outside of Kyrie Irving. Curry managed to break the record for most three-pointers made in a season and has helped lead a Warriors team that has struggled a lot over the last decade. With Curry, Lee, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut being the main five for the Warriors they are definitely on their way up in the Western Conference. In a couple of years this team could be one of the best teams in the West and could compete regularly with the Thunder over the next decade.
The Nuggets are led by Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Andre Iguodala with Danilo Gallinari missing the rest of the playoffs due to injury. If the Nuggets had a healthy Galo to play with I would have had to choose them to win the series. This season is going to be very close and will likely go the entire season with a winner being crowned in game seven. Remember when Steph Curry came out and put Davidson on the map? He's about to do the same with Golden State.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (Clippers lead 2-0)
Jim: Clippers in 6
Darryl: Grizzlies in 7
To be honest I'm shocked to see the Clippers hold a 2-0 lead over the Grizzlies. The Clips won game one pretty easily by over 20 points and were able to squeak out a close win in game two following a game-winning floater by Chris Paul. With the next two games headed to Memphis, the Grizzlies will have to come out playing the defense that got them to this point in the season if they are going to advance.
CP3 has been the best player in the NBA this season that doesn't play the 3-4 position that has been occupied by LeBron, Melo and Durant. When CP3 was traded to the Clippers they finally had something to look forward to in Los Angeles in the NBA outside of the Lakers. The Clippers had been the laughing stock of the NBA for years and with CP3 and Blake Griffin now leading them, they are now the best team playing in the Staples Center.
The Grizzlies will need their big men of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to better protect the rim and control the glass if they are going to turn this series around. Mike Conley and Tony Allen will have their hands full enough with all of the different guards the Clippers can throw out at them so the bigs will be the ones that will be relied on in this series.
I'm expecting the Grizzlies to head back to Memphis and win both games at home to even up the series with the Clippers then finishing it in six. This series should end up with more low scoring games going forward so if you like defense, this is something that should be worth watching.
